A United Ireland Plebiscite Must Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Alert

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."